Outlook report

Economic and industry-specific conditions

The following comments on the outlook for 2021 only include the effects of the Corona virus measures to the extent that the corresponding information or forecasts had been published by the time of reporting. The impact on the international and German economy is severe, but based on current knowledge, it is still not possible to accurately estimate how future years will unfold.

In its latest outlook for 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global economic output to recover as a result of the measures introduced to combat the Corona virus. The current forecast is for an increase of 5.5 percent. Economic growth of 4.2 percent is expected for 2022. The IMF is weighing drivers, such as a successful vaccination campaign, on the one hand, against restraining effects due to viral mutations on the other. In addition, global trade volumes are also expected to grow. The services sector is expected to recover more slowly than merchandise trade, which is consistent with subdued cross-border tourism and business travel. Even with the projected recovery in 2021 and 2022, gaps in production are not expected to close.22

The general economic situation in the leading industrialized nations is expected to experience a significant upswing in 2021, following the devastating slump in 2020, due in part to the earlier availability of vaccines compared with emerging and developing countries. The IMF expects the US economy to grow by an average of 5.1 percent. Canada and the UK have similar forecasts. China is also expected to grow significantly with a forecast average of 8.1 percent. India is even forecast to grow at a double-digit rate of 11.5 percent.22

The IMF also expects the euro zone economy to grow by an average of 4.2 percent and by 3.6 percent in 2022. Additional EU funds should help to stimulate economic cycle or mitigate the economic consequences of the Corona pandemic. The positive news about vaccine production also contributes to this forecast. In most countries, budget deficits are expected to decline. This is reflected in the forecast growth rates. Germany is expected to grow by 3.5 percent, France by 5.5 percent, Italy by 3.0 percent, and Spain by 5.9 percent.22

The ifo Institute supports the IMF’s statements with comparable expectations for the Federal Republic of Germany. In an industry-specific analysis, the Ifo Institute shows various developments that will continue into 2021. The hospitality industry and other service providers such as hotels and retailers were hit particularly hard. In many sectors of the economy, the infection control measures adopted since November 2020 were tantamount to a halt in activity, analogous to air traffic. By contrast, the ifo Institute sees the manufacturing sector continuing on a path of recovery. At present, forecasts assume that more far-reaching easing will not be completed until sometime in the spring of 2021. Overall, the price-adjusted gross domestic product is likely to increase by 3.7 percent in 2021. In 2022, the recovery is expected to continue, although the pace is likely to slow compared with the previous year. Price-adjusted GDP for 2022 is projected to be 3.2 percent.23

The oil price (Brent) was volatile in 2020 due to the crisis and in some cases even trended negatively. The average for the year was USD 42.30 per barrel. For 2021, price movements will depend heavily on coordination among the producing countries.24 The experts are currently not only assuming a rapid recovery in the oil price. They forecast a significantly higher price level than recently assumed. For European benchmark Brent, the forecast is for USD 75 per barrel over the next three months.25

The demographic and economic general conditions in Bavaria and especially in the airport catchment area mean that further strong growth in transportation demand can be expected at Munich in the medium to long term despite short-term slumps. According to the results of the regionalized population projection of the Bavarian State Office for Statistics, the population of Bavaria will grow by 3.2 percent by 2039, especially in the Munich region, where it will actually increase strongly to very strongly. In the Bavarian state capital of Munich, the figure is expected to be 7.8 percent; in total, the population in the Munich district will increase by 7.7 percent. The strongest growth is likely to be seen in municipalities in the Munich suburbs, for example Dachau with +10.8 percent or Ebersberg with +11.5 percent.26 In its regional industry forecast 2030 – Germany after Corona – Prognos continues to show Bavaria as one of the top locations in Germany, despite the extreme strain on air traffic caused by the Corona pandemic. Freising, for example, has been hit hard, yet a double-digit growth rate is projected through 2030.27

The global aviation market is suffering severely from the Corona pandemic. Its future prospects should be viewed less optimistically than those of other industries. In principle, the travel restrictions are tantamount to a halt on activity, even though air transport has proven its systemic relevance by transporting medical goods, among other things. IATA also notes that the start of 2021 has been weaker than expected and projects that global air traffic demand will settle in a range between 33 percent and 38 percent of 2019 volumes.28

Forecast course of business

To date, the aviation industry has been more severely and directly affected than other industries by the consequences of the global spread of the Corona virus. Munich Airport expects air traffic to increase in 2021 compared with the previous year. According to an estimate from February 2021, a rather slight growth of approx. two million passengers or almost 20 percent compared to the previous year is expected. This means that the expected passenger volume is approx. 13 million, which is 27 percent compared to the peak from 2019.

Based on current estimates, Executive Board expects to reach 2019 air traffic volumes in 2024. However, this assumption is subject to great uncertainty and depends heavily on how quickly the pandemic can be contained worldwide, particularly through widespread use of vaccines.

Munich Airport assumes that the impact of the crisis will continue to have a lasting effect on the Group’s economic development in all business units in 2021.

With regard to revenue from airport charges, the Executive Board assumes an increase in line with the development of traffic with reference to the newly concluded multi-year master agreement on charges. This agreement does not foresee any price increase for 2021 due to the crisis.

Retail sales are expected to remain at the previous year’s level. Average yields per passenger declined slightly due to the lack of foreign customer segments with high purchasing power in particular as a result of the global travel restrictions. This is exacerbated by business closures lasting several months.

Revenue from catering and hotels as well as from handling operations, parking and advertising is assumed to grow at a lower rate than growth in air traffic.

A decrease in revenues from parking and rental and leasing is expected.

Other revenues, which include throughput charges for aviation fuel supply, revenues for utilities and fuel, and global management, consulting and training services for the aviation industry, are developing at a significantly lower rate than passenger growth.

In total, the Executive Board expects an increase in sales revenue of approximately 10 percent compared to 2020.

The cost of materials is expected to rise disproportionately compared with sales revenue. The maintenance and remodeling measures included in this figure will increase significantly due to corresponding catch-up effects from 2020 and in connection with a modernization at the Hilton hotel.

Personnel expenses in the Group are expected to remain at the previous year’s level. The decrease in personnel expenses in 2020 is attributable to a special effect resulting from a reduction in vacation and time-off credits. Natural attrition, retirement and the «Restart» change program will reduce the number of employees by the end of 2021.

Other expenses are expected to decrease significantly. This is mainly due to the fact that the one-off effect from 2020 in connection with the «Restart» change program will not be repeated. Irrespective of this, expenses are essentially planned – as in 2020 – only within the framework of the minimum required by law.

Depreciation and amortization will decrease due to asset impairments recognized in 2020.

The financial result is expected to deteriorate due to the annual compounding effects in connection with financial liabilities from interests in partnerships.

In view of the continued very low level of revenue and the limited scope for counteracting this on the expense side, Munich Airport assumes that earnings before taxes (EBT) will be significantly negative in the 2021 fiscal year, even after extensive countermeasures have been implemented.

The Executive Board is making massive efforts to secure liquidity. This will be achieved through cuts in all costs and investments. For example, construction projects that can be delayed, which are not operationally necessary or of great strategic relevance, are postponed to the future. Secondly, the «Restart» change program was initiated, which also includes human resources related measures.

Munich Airport is in a position to continue to make operationally necessary and strategically relevant investments. Compared with the previous year, however, the total investment volume planned for 2021 has been reduced again.

Munich Airport is in constant contact with its principal banks regarding any liquidity requirements that may arise. In the course of 2021, the air traffic, earnings and liquidity forecasts will be continuously updated and, depending on the further course of the crisis, a decision will be made as to when and to what extent an increase in the existing credit lines must be initiated and, if necessary, new funds raised. This ensures that the Group has the necessary liquidity at all times.

The anticipated liquidity depletion assumes that the countermeasures for expenses, investments and personnel are implemented, air traffic recovers and reaches the expected level. If these assumptions do not come to pass in the manner outlined, this may lead to an increased liquidity demand and consequently to earlier consumption of the existing liquidity reserves. From its current perspective, Munich Airport will be able to cover any higher liquidity requirements on the capital market.

Projected major financial and non-financial key performance indicators

 

 

2020

 

2021

 

 

Actual

 

Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

from

 

to

 

 

 

 

 

 

%

 

%

EBT (in T€)

 

-433,420

 

 

 

Unchanged

CO2 reductions (in tonnes)1

 

2,373

 

Decrease

 

-15.7

 

-10.7

Passenger Experience Index Overall Satisfaction2

 

78.12

 

Unchanged

 

0.0

 

0.0

1

Actual value CO2 savings 2020 without savings from use of PCA, i.e. only energy efficiency and supply

2

2020 could only use the value in the 1st quarter of 2020 as a target value for the overall satisfaction from the passenger experience index, since passenger surveys were only carried out during this period.

Overall, Munich Airport expects EBT to remain at the previous year’s level. The exact trend will depend above all on the duration of the travel restrictions and is therefore difficult to estimate at present. This means that in 2021, Munich Airport will still be significantly behind the record year of 2019 before the crisis.

In relation to carbon reductions, a slight decline in the target value for 2021 is expected compared with the savings achieved in 2020. The measures planned, will save more energy than in the previous year. However, the decreasing emission factor for electricity ensures that CO2 emissions are not reduced to the same extent. The PCA systems (pre-conditioned air systems) installed at Munich Airport are now in normal operation. Their utilization rate will remain at a high level and adjusted if necessary. Additional savings from efficiency measures are targeted for 2021. The planned measures should primarily reduce the energy requirement for lighting and air conditioning technology.

The forecast value of 78.12 for the Passenger Experience Index (PEI) for 2021 was set slightly lower than in previous years because the impact of the Corona pandemic on the PEI cannot yet be determined. In addition, Munich Airport will broaden its ongoing measures to improve passenger satisfaction by adding hygiene to its agenda. Among other things, hygiene measures were included in the audit criteria during the successful 5-Star re-certification audit in 2020, since they have a significant impact on passenger satisfaction, especially when dealing with Covid-19. For example, hygiene was a key component of the successful ACI Health Accreditation in January 2021. In order to maintain and even improve the level of hygiene at Munich Airport, a process will be established in the quality management system during 2021, which will also include the topic of hygiene as part of the continuous improvement process. An important part of this process will be on-site checks, which will be carried out regularly by experts from the specialist departments. In addition, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, or EASA, included Munich Airport in June 2020 in the group of international pilot airports that exemplify safe travel in times of the Corona pandemic. At these airports, which also include Frankfurt, Brussels, Paris-Charles-de-Gaulle and Amsterdam, the recommendations drawn up by EASA and the European health authority ECDC are to be implemented in an exemplary manner.

22 International Monetary Fund, January 2021: World Economic Outlook Update

22 International Monetary Fund, January 2021: World Economic Outlook Update

23 Ifo Institute, Economic Forecast Spring 2021, March 24, 2021

24 Website: Tecson, Oil Price Development as of March 16, 2021

25 Website: getoil, oil price forecast and oil price development from February 22, 2021

26 Bayrisches Landesamt für Statistik, population projection by region for Bavaria until 2039, December 2020.

27 Prognos, Regional Industry Forecast 2030 – Germany after Corona, November 20, 2020

28 IATA, COVID-19 Cash Burn Continues – Urgent Preparations for Restart, February 24, 2021

Airports Council International (ACI)
An international organization, headquartered in Montreal, which represents airport operators. More than 1,900 airports in almost all of the countries in the world are ACI members, including more than 500 airports in 46 European countries.
European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
The European Aviation Safety Agency is the European Union’s flight safety body for civil aviation and is based in Cologne.

Share this report on social media: